Interest rates: is the latest increase a deal-breaker?

My friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending had a fun blog about the 1/4% rate increase recently. He compared it to be equivalent to just less than four lattes per month, to put it into context. You can see the highlights of that blog below, and then our fun take on it!

From Jay: There have been a lot of rumblings in the news lately about rate increases…mostly b/c rates have been increasing :).

The Fed recently announced an increase in the Fed Funds rate with more on the way, and rates have been increasing in general in response to positive economic reports, as most everyone knows. As a result, rates are now back at levels not seen since 2011. The good news is that rates remain very low by historical standards, as we remind everyone over and over (6% was a “gift” in 2006; 7% was awesome in the 1990s; and 9% was unimaginable in the 1980s).

The other good news? Rates affect payments much less than most people think. Here is the rule of thumb: for every 1/4% increase in rates, a mortgage payment increases by about $15 per $100,000. That’s less than four Starbucks Lattes per month. So, in a “Starbuckian economy,” a 1/4% increase in rates will increase the payment on a $500,000 loan by about 20 Lattes per month. That’s not too bad, especially when you consider that those lattes may be tax deductible too.

From Kristin: So, let’s compare a 6-pack of beer, an average cost of which is about $9, to the 1/4% rate increase. You could get almost two 6 packs for that increase. Or maybe a new shirt on sale at Old Navy. A decent bottle of wine at Trader Joe’s will run you about $15. Eating out at many restaurants in downtown Walnut Creek might cost about $15 per person before tip.

So, before you get too worried about the rate increase, consider that what you’re really losing is just a new shirt, or a couple of beers, or one lunch out with friends. Or, god forbid, a handful of lifeblood, I mean lattes, before work! All said, this increase won’t have too much of an effect on your life.

Of course, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. According to this article, mortgage rates are fast approaching 5 percent, which is a fresh blow to the housing market.

Is the housing market shifting, an opportunity for some?

Is the housing market going to start shifting in the direction of price reductions at the higher end of the spectrum? According to Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas, it could happen. Approximately 14 percent of homes for sale underwent price reductions back in June, and most of them happened at the more expensive levels.

Image result for housing market

Over the last two years, the housing market has tilted sharply in favor of sellers. But this might be an early warning sign that the tide is turning a little bit. Although it’s too soon to officially call this a buyer’s market, this data does indicate that the trends in the housing industry may be normalizing. In speaking to my title rep, Jason Webb at Fidelity, I asked what he is seeing in the industry. His response was that there are currently more contingent offers, homes taking longer to close, and more demands to close escrow. I am personally experiencing all that in one escrow and it is not fun!

In my situation, the sellers have already moved and the buyer (who did not have a contingency on selling their condo) is delayed on it closing by three weeks. It was originally supposed to close by tomorrow. The agent representing the seller of the condo and the buyer on my listing is a rookie agent who has not been great at communicating the status. My sellers are frustrated and gave a demand to close escrow, but it was really to get them to push on the buyers of the condo, as I had no control and no authorization to speak to them.

We will now most likely close in another week on my my clients’ home because the buyer decided to go out and buy a new car. That caused his debt-to-income percentage to be too high, and now the car has to be paid off with proceeds from the sale of his condo. That causes further delays in our closing because the lender needs to see it get paid off. Another interesting component to this was that my clients Google’d the buyer and the results were…surprising. We knew it could be a challenging process, but we didn’t think it would be this much of a wild ride!

I believe we will see more of these types of issues as the market softens and reverts to a better balance. We can’t keep increasing, and it is time for the market to come down off this upward trajectory. There are some positive outcomes to a correction, but it is change and change is hard for most people; especially sellers when they still expect a higher price than their neighbor.

Today’s housing market vs. 2008’s market

Consultant Bob Schwab has a few interesting thoughts on the difference between the housing market in 2008 and the housing market today. He essentially points out that the landscape of today’s market is radically different than 10 years ago, so comparing the two era’s – even if numbers look similar – is tricky. Here are his thoughts below:

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Some are attempting to compare the current housing market to the market leading up to the “boom and bust” that we experienced a decade ago. They look at price appreciation and conclude that we are on a similar trajectory, speeding toward another housing crisis.

However, there is a major difference between the two markets. Last decade, while demand was being artificially created by extremely loose lending standards, a tremendous amount of inventory was coming to the market to satisfy that demand. Below is a graph of the inventory of homes available for sale leading up to the 2008 crash.

A normal market should have approximately 6 months supply of housing inventory. As we can see, that number jumped to over 11 months supply leading up to the housing crisis. When questionable mortgage practices ceased, and demand dried up, there was a glut of inventory on the market which caused prices to drop as there was too much supply and not enough demand.

Today is radically different!

There are those who believe that low mortgage rates have created an artificial demand in the current market. They fear that if mortgage rates continue to rise, some of the current demand will dry up (which is a possibility).

However, if we look at supply again, we can see that the current supply of homes is well below the norm of 6 months.

Bottom Line

We will not have a glut of inventory like we did back in 2008 and home values won’t come tumbling down. Instead, if demand weakens, we will return to a normal market (approximately a 6-month supply) with historic levels of appreciation (3.6% annually).

Separate from the Schwab blog, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says, “It’s important to note that despite the modest year-over-year rise in inventory, the current level is far from what’s needed to satisfy demand levels. Furthermore, it remains to be seen if this modest increase will stick, given the fact that the robust economy is bringing more interested buyers into the market, and new home construction is failing to keep up.”

And First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming says, “Millennials’ lifestyle and economic decisions are some of the main reasons we currently have a lower homeownership rate than expected, based on our Homeownership Progress Index. Yet, it is reasonable to expect homeownership rates to grow as millennials continue to make important decisions, including attaining an education and, later in life, getting married and buying a home.”

Glen Bell, a very analytical realtor in Berkeley, shared some charts with us, which also give additional insights into the disparities in the market:

Zillow_June_Numbers

Bell says he predicts a recession in 2019 or 2020, and that the real estate market will be a minor factor in it. Rising interest rates may offset some buying opportunities. It’s also hard to predict how much tax reform will play into this. Prices continue to rise and might be causing more people in the middle class to flee the Bay Area.

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Glen's Numbers pg 1

Glen's Numbers pg 2

CoreLogic’s State of the Nation’s Housing 2018

Bob Schwab shared CoreLogic’s State of the Nation’s Housing 2018 report recently, and I wanted to pass that information along to you. This is the 30th anniversary of the report, which features CoreLogic’s home price and rent growth information. This year’s report article was authored by Molly Boesel, and you can see it in its entirety below:

From the State of the Nation’s Housing 2018 Report

The State of the Nation’s Housing 2018

On June 19, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University released their 30th anniversary edition of the State of the Nation’s Housing report. The 2018 report highlighted some major themes including lack of housing supply, rising home prices and rents, and housing affordability.

The U.S. housing market continues to be plagued by a lack of supply of homes for sale. Months of supply available for sale is a key measure of housing supply, and is at levels that are below where they would be for the housing market to be balanced. The Harvard report points out that negative equity as reported by CoreLogic no longer appears to be a drag on sales. Negative equity shrank from 12.1 million mortgages in 2011 to 2.5 million in 2017. Rather, a factor in the low housing supply is slow growth in single-family construction that has not kept up with demand.

Low housing supply has contributed to increases in home prices. Home prices, according to the CoreLogic HPI were up by 5.9 percent for all of 2017. Prices for the lowest-cost homes (those homes priced at 75 percent or less than median) were up by 8.5 percent, compared with 4.7 percent for the highest-cost homes (those homes priced at 125 percent or more than median). Along with home price increases, there have also been increases in rents. The report highlights the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index (SFRI). While the SFRI is still showing increases in rent through the beginning of 2018, there has been a deceleration in the rate of increase.

Living in the Bay Area, we know the increases in home prices and rents have outpaced increase in incomes and have contributed to affordability problems. High prices and low supply constrain access to homeownership, but affordability issues are more immediate for some households. The CoreLogic SFRI shows that the lowest-cost rentals are showing the fastest rent growth, adding to affordability challenges to low-and-moderate income households. The Joint Center reports that in 2016, 38.1 million households were cost-burdened, meaning they spent more than 30 percent of their incomes on housing. While this number was down by 800,000 from 2015, it is still 6.5 million higher than it was in 2001.

I also believe the low supply in California has multiple factors.  People are not moving up, but remodeling because they don’t know where they would move. Seniors also have the same problem and if they stay in California, some counties will not accept their current tax base and they often have to sell in order to buy.  It is a domino effect.

I’ve included the graph above for context, and have the entire PDF report available if you’d like to see it. For any housing-specific questions, shoot me a note!

Top 5 Housing Predictions for 2018

As the first month of the new year closes, we are starting to see the 2018 market take shape, and getting a clear look back at the 2017 year. Last year was a strong one for sellers – interest rates remained low, but are now rising, and refinancing plummeted. So, what’s next for 2018?

Take a look at the summaries of Summit Funding’s Top 5 Housing Predictions for 2018, with commentary from yours truly:

  1. A rise in cash-out refinance

Low-interest rates have fueled buying, kept inventory low, and likely even helped speed up housing recovery in Miami and Houston after their 2017 hurricanes. Interest rates will continue to rise in 2018, but not high enough to deter interested homebuyers. We should, however, keep an eye on a potential rise in cash-out refinance, as Americans’ home equity wealth is at an all-time high. We are also seeing the rise of all-cash purchases, a high rate of home purchase co-borrowers, and increased buying assistance from family. As home prices become even higher — and overvalued, according to CoreLogic — expect to see more parents cash out their home equity to help their adult children begin building their own housing wealth.

  1. Return to services

With higher home prices come great risks and more compromises for homebuyers, who will become ever more reliant on experienced and informed housing professionals to make buying and mortgage decisions. Mortgage rates will continue to become a commodity; homebuyers have access to rates on their devices and know mortgage brokers are quoting from the same rate sheets. As homebuyers evaluate their partners, they should look for realtors and mortgage professionals who offer value that protects the clients’ bottom line. Housing professionals who deliver this will be the ones who can truly stand out and have longevity in this crowded market. A great lender and agent can make all the difference in the world. Be careful you are comparing apples to apples when getting rate quotes, as it can’t be locked in until you get an accepted offer so lenders can you give varying rates as they know they will be different the day you get an offer accepted.

  1. Advancement in housing Fintech

Expect technology to continue to make breakthroughs in housing. The proliferation of information has made everyday consumers more demanding of progress and fairness, which is a good thing. They demand more competition for their business and stronger customer empowerment. New housing financial technology will not just be about faster search results or more photos, it will be expected to serve up more home buyer protection. In 2018, homebuyers will increasingly question why they could sell a home at a loss when realtors still collect their brokerage fees. When they see a pre-closing statement listing fee paid to protect their lenders, they would demand to see the calculation of risks and returns designed to protect their purchase. Getting ahead of these questions and demands will become table stakes in the advancement of housing financial technology.  This may be a ways off.  There is a lot of buyer protection now as a result of the downturn.

  1. Millennials may continue to prolong homeownership

Americans — including millennials — want to own homes; we knew this already. However, millennials may want other things in life more than homeownership, or they don’t want to be “house poor.” Affordability is definitely the top barrier to home buying, no doubt. However, there are increasing indications that millennials are not pulling out all the stops to buy a home even if they could afford one. In ValueInsured’s latest Modern Homebuyer Survey, 36% of millennials who want to buy a home say they are delaying buying in order to keep their options open. Nearly half (47%) of millennials also say they worry their job future is uncertain and want to figure that out first. Instead of paying high home prices, millennials have proven unafraid to give up buying and go back to renting. A generation known for defying conventions and expectations may change the housing market forever in 2018 if they say “enough” to high home prices and decide to do their own thing.

  1. The next Seattle or San Jose

In the future, scorching-hot real estate markets will give rise to more calm and cool emerging markets. Places like Provo, UT, Athens, OH and Aberdeen, SD may be hot spots in 2018. More Americans will telecommute to their jobs or shop from their devices instead of at malls. This is simply a fact of life. So, as real estate prices and commercial rents increase, more Asian fusion restaurants, CrossFit studios and organic micro-breweries will open in previously ‘B’ or ‘C’ designated counties. Once upon a time, Portland, OR and Chattanooga, TN were seen as hidden real estate gems, and now they are cities millennials are leaving behind in search of more affordable homes. Millennials’ tendencies to be nomadic and to reject established institutions (or markets), and their sophistication in forming their own community, could prove to be very interesting in challenging traditional housing cycles and expectations.

Stay tuned for December to see if these things panned out or were just a pie in the sky.

Owners have the largest mortgages in history!

It’s no secret that the housing market has been unbalanced over the past few years. Prices have been rising, and with them, so have average home loans.

mw-average mortgage size

According to The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average home loan size is the largest its been in the history of its survey, which began in 1990.

Additionally, the median mortgage size was only about 3.3 times the median annual income in 1990 – now, it’s more than 5 times as big. This is likely due to the increase in housing prices, buyers getting bigger homes and lower interest rates over the years.

Here’s a look at some housing market characteristics for select years.

Housing market data points
Courtesy Realtor.com (link in text above)

According to Mike Ervin of Supreme Lending, people are just waiting and waiting for mortgage rates to go down. People who are using securitizers like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to wait until the Fed buys up more mortgage bonds so that rates will go down. It is unknown if that will happen, but rates have dropped in 2017.

Multiple factors can affect the bond and mortgage markets. The most recent major event was the Trump election and presidency, which saw a large immediate increase in mortgage rates, which have since rebounded, even with the Fed raising rates.

In California, we are in the wealth-building business and real estate in the Bay Area is going to be a good investment for years to come. I am here to advise, provide insight and help you build wealth through real estate.

What the most recent rate hike means