10 Housing Trends for 2020

This time of year, there are a ton of “housing market prediction” pieces flooding the airwaves. Some are crazy, many are measured, and when you put them all together, you get a fairly clear picture of where experts think the industry is headed in 2020.

Below, we’ve gathered the top 10 predictions from a few different sources (Realtor.com, WaPo, and Forbes, to be exact). I’ll add my two cents at the bottom, but here are some possibilities for housing in 2020:

1. Moderate Growth in the Housing Market

New home sales are expected to rise, but existing home sales will remain held down by a lack of supply. Overall, this equals an expectation of moderate growth.

2. Continued Low Rates

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects the 30-year fixed-mortgage rate will remain below 4 percent in the coming year, moving to 3.8 percent by the end of 2020.

3. Hottest Home Appreciation Markets? Not in CA

The NAR expects 10 markets to have home price appreciation that outpaces the rest of the country over the next 3-5 years. None are in California:

Ogden, UT
Las Vegas, NV
Fort Collins, CO
Colorado Springs, CO
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Columbus, OH
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC
Charlotte, NC
Charleston, SC
Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL

4. Home Prices Will Flatten

Don’t expect to see a surge in home prices – experts at Realtor.com think they will only increase 0.8 percent nationally. They expect prices to decline in some major cities, including San Francisco.

5. Again, Top Markets Shut Out CA

Realtor.com agrees with the NAR in that California won’t have any of the top markets in 2020. Their list:

Boise, ID
McAllen, TX
Tucson, AZ
Chattanooga, TN
Columbia, SC
Rochester, NY
Colorado Springs, CO
Winston-Salem, NC
Charleston, SC
Memphis, TN

Image result for colorado springs — Downtown Colorado Springs

6. Competition Will Increase

Redfin thinks that 1 out of 4 offers will face a bidding war. This increased competition might push price growth up to 6 percent higher in the first half of the year, before it evens out to a more moderate 3 percent.

7. Revenue Will Fall

The Morgage Bankers Association expects lenders to chase fewer loans. They say purchase applications will be up slightly, while refinances will be lower.

8. Millennials Will Shape the Market

Realtor.com data shows that Millennials made up a whopping 46 percent of all mortgage originations in September 2019 (meanwhile, that share of Baby Boomer and Gen X mortgage activity declined). And they’re looking to move into smaller, suburban towns on the outskirts of major metros. Forbes says they want places with live-work-play neighborhoods with the safety and affordability of suburbs AND the transit, walkability, and 24-hour amenities of the big city.

9. The Industry Will Continue to Digitize

Manual, paper-laden processes are old news. Tech-savvy Millennials are entering the market at a fast pace, so the real estate industry is adjusting to meet their demands. Get ready for e-signing everything!

10. California’s Market is Changing

According to Realtor.com, three of the top four metro areas seeing the largest decline in inventory are in Northern California (San Jose, Sacramento, and San Francisco-Oakland).

From what I am seeing and in conversation with other agents the 680/24 corridor will have a robust spring. I had one of the busiest Decembers ever and expect the will continue into the first quarter. The challenge will be finding buyers homes, as I think most will have multiple offers.

Next January, we will have to revisit these prognostications and see which ones were on the money$$$.

Fun housing statistics from the last decade

Rate.com came out with some fun housing statistics to end 2019. They look back at the decade that was and try to “blow our minds” with the numbers and figures from that era. Let’s see what they say, and if we agree! Read on:

2019 was a wild year in the housing market, full of surprise drops, innovative ideas and new opportunities. High demand kept competition stiff in certain hot markets, while mortgage rates continued a surprising decline dating back to fall of last year. As we look toward 2020, we’re also taking a look back at the last decade with seven surprising facts that explain where the housing market’s been, and where it might be going.

1. Mortgage rates ride a rollercoaster—but are at historic lows now

As recorded by Freddie Mac, average rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages have been on a journey since 2010, with periods of peaks and valleys. Rates topped at 5.10 in April 2010, before starting a downward descent to 3.35 at the end of 2012. Rates jumped quickly in June 2013 and November 2016 and hit recent highs of 4.87 in November 2018, but since then have been on a steady decline. While November’s 3.70 isn’t the lowest in the last ten years[, it’s well near historic lows, making now an attractive time to buy.

2. Millennials purchase with lower down payments than boomers—but pay more

On average, millennials are only putting down 9% of home value as a down payment, as compared to baby-boomers (11%). Interestingly though, they’re still paying more than baby boomers. According to surveys from Porch.com, boomers paid an average down payment of $15,852.10, while millennials made an average down payment of $17,579.42.[ One possible explanation is that boomers are often downsizing into smaller homes with a lower price point, while millennials are opting for the first home and often want space to grow.

3. Incomes struggle to keep pace with home values

Since bottoming out following the housing bubble and accompanying Great Recession, home values have been on an upward climb. Unfortunately, average incomes have not kept pace. While home values rose 50% over the past seven years, household incomes rose only 11.3% in real terms from 2012 to 2017.[ Said another way, the price of a typical home as increased by more than half of an entire year’s median income, making it more difficult for buyers to keep up.

4. Can ADU’s save San Francisco’s housing problems?

Known by a number of names in the past like ‘Granny flats’, ‘coach houses’, in-laws or ‘accessory apartment’, Accessory Dwelling Units (or ADUs) have appeared as a potential solution for urban centers that lack affordable housing. According to a Terner Center for Housing Innovation, 1,970 Los Angeles residents filed ADU applications in 2017, compared with only 90 in 2015. And after San Francisco passed legislation to ease restrictions on the creation of ADUs, city planners saw ADU applications jump from 242 in 2016 to 1046 by the end of 2017. While the results so far are mixed, ADUs might be one tool to help solve the housing affordability crisis in many high-density markets.

5. Buyers may dabble online, but agents still rule

Continuing the decade-long trend, the internet continues to dominate buyers’ searches for their new homes. According to the NAR, 95% of buyers used the internet at some point in their home search, and 50% found the home they eventually purchased online. While e-buyers have started to proliferate in towards the end of the decade, 86% of homebuyers used a real estate agent to complete their home sale. Kristin note: E-buyers really only makes sense in neighborhoods that are the same, which is rarely the bay area.

6. It pays for VA homebuyers to be careful—and shop around

The mortgage product with the most amount of variability in terms of the mortgage rate quoted is VA loans. Among all mortgage products, VA loans had the highest APR percentage point variability, varying as much as 1.09 points.[ That means the rate quoted for VA homebuyers can vary more widely than other financing products. With so much variability for VA lenders, it’s important to work with a quality lender with a strong track record of working with veterans.

7. When it comes to AC vs. Mom, AC wins

Turns out, people value creature comforts more than they need to be near friends and family. When asked about the factors that are most important when selecting a home, respondents consistently rank having air conditioning as more important than being close to family or friends. Interestingly, results hold for both renters and buyers, and across all income brackets. So, it turns out family isn’t everything (at least during summer).

A bit of a long blog, but all interesting information and of course in the next decade it will all change. Stay tuned for a future blog about some predictions of our crazy housing market.

Bob Schwab: Is the real estate market finally going back to normal?

Our in-house lender Bob Schwab recently sent an article about the housing market and its ups-and-downs over the last decade-plus. He thinks it’s about time that the real estate market goes back to normal. Here is what is says, with my take at the end!

The housing market has been anything but normal for the last eleven years. In a normal real estate market, home prices appreciate 3.7% annually. Below, however, are the price swings since 2007 according to the latest Home Price Expectation Survey:

After the bubble burst in June 2007, values depreciated 6.1% annually until February 2012. From March 2012 to today, the market has been recovering with values appreciating 6.2% annually. These wild swings in values were caused by abnormal ratios between the available supply of inventory and buyer demand in the market. In a normal market, there would be a 6-month supply of housing inventory.

When the market hit its peak in 2007, homeowners and builders were trying to take advantage of a market that was fueled by an“irrational exuberance.” Inventory levels grew to 7+ months. In this simplified view, with that many homes available for sale, there weren’t enough buyers to satisfy the number of homeowners/builders trying to sell, so prices began to fall.

Then, foreclosures came to market. We eventually hit 11 months inventory which caused prices to crash until early 2012. By that time, inventory levels had fallen to 6.2 months and the market began its recovery. Over the last five years, inventory levels have remained well below the 6-month supply needed for prices to continue to level off. As a result, home prices have increased over that time at percentages well above the appreciation levels seen in a more normal market.

That was the past. What about the future?

We currently have about 4.5-months inventory. This means prices should continue to appreciate at above-normal levels which most experts believe will happen for the next year. However, two things have just occurred that are pointing to the fact that we may be returning to a more normal market.

Listing Supply is Increasing

Both existing and new construction inventory is on the rise. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from theNational Association of Realtors revealed that inventory has increased over the last two months after thirty-seven consecutive months of declining inventory. At the same time, building permits are also increasing which means more new construction is about to come to market.

Buyer Demand is Softening

Ivy Zelman, who is widely respected as an industry expert, reported in her latest ‘Z’ Report: “While we continue to expect a resumption of growth in resale transactions on the back of easing inventory in 2019 and 2020, our real-time view into the market through ourReal Estate Broker Survey does suggest that buyers have grown more discerning of late and a level of “pause” has taken hold in many large housing markets. Indicative of this, our broker contacts rated buyer demand at 69 on a 0- 100 scale, still above average but down from 74 last year and representing the largest year-over-year decline in the two-year history of our survey.”

With supply increasing and demand waning, we may soon be back to a more normal real estate market. We will no longer be in a buyers’ market (like 2007-February 2012) or a sellers’ market (like March 2012- Today). Prices won’t appreciate at the levels we’ve seen recently, nor will they depreciate. It will be a balanced market where prices remain steady, where buyers will be better able to afford a home, and where sellers will more easily be able to move-up or move-down to a home that better suits their current lifestyles.

Bottom Line

Returning to a normal market is a good thing. However, after the zaniness of the last eleven years, it might feel strange. If you are going 85 miles per hour on a road with a 60 MPH speed limit and you see a police car ahead, you’re going to slow down quickly. But, after going 85 MPH, 60 MPH will feel like you’re crawling. It is the normal speed limit, yet, it will feel strange. That’s what is about to happen in real estate. The housing market is not falling apart. We are just returning to a more normal market which, in the long run, will be much healthier for you whether you are a buyer or a seller.

Note: This is a nationwide overview, but there are always micro areas that buck the trend.

Are millennials looking for homes or glorified dog houses?

Everyone loves dogs! I love my dog! You love your dogs, too! It seems that millennials especially like their dogs, as a recent Time article explained that “space for a dog” is the third-most common reason cited by millennials for buying a home in today’s market.

What really struck me about the article is this: “space for a dog” is listed ahead of “children” or “marriage” as reasons for purchasing a home. It came in only behind “more living space” and “building equity.”

Now, isn’t that interesting? We know millennials are getting married later and having fewer children than previous generations, and the housing market has become so expensive across the county that it prices out people who have spent money on marriages and providing for children, but it’s still surprising to see it behind a reason like “space for a dog.”

The rental market prices have also skyrocketed, which makes me think that millennials would rather pay a mortgage in some cases and have their own home with ample room for their four-legged friends, than pay a monthly rent in properties with strict pet policies.

I guess you can always buy a home first, let your dog break it in, and then bring in a partner and children! Whatever works! It’s just funny to see the difference between their generation and mine, and why they pursue home-buying.

Pending home sales are down in CA – what does it mean?

According to the California Association of Realtors, pending home sales have dialed back and marked the weakest February in three years.

Low housing inventory, eroding affordability and rising interest rates made pending sales on a year-over-year basis for the month of February suffer after a good start to the year in closed escrow sales. Also, sellers simply aren’t selling.

They did see elevated market activity, but the Bay Area pending sales specifically were down year-to-year for the fifth straight month. According to the release, the Bay Area has been plagued by a shortage of homes on the market and poor affordability.

We have seen an increase in listings starting in April, but with pent-up demand, buyers are getting frustrated losing out in multiple-offer scenarios and with ever-increasing prices.

If you want to know more about the market, give me a call!

All of America’s hottest real estate markets are on West Coast

We found a Realtor.com article recently that ranked the hottest real estate markets for February 2017. Nobody will be surprised to see that three of the top five (Vallejo, San Francisco and San Jose) are in the Bay Area.

According to the article, a large part of Vallejo’s rise to number one on the hottest real estate markets list is due to their drop in median days on market. It wasn’t too long ago that Vallejo went bankrupt and Mare Island redevelopment was in the crapper – that still might be an area for investment.

I also found out that Seattle is the fastest-growing market, which doesn’t surprise me at all. Seattle seems to be on the fast track to San Francisco status, with a similar culture and a bunch of new tech companies migrating their headquarters North. I currently have a client selling in Pleasant Hill and moving to Seattle and he is finding it is more expensive to purchase there.

Either way, the West Coast is HOT! If you are looking to buy or sell in the East Bay, please feel free to reach out and ask for my help!

How rate increases affect your payments

We’ve seen rates increase since Donald Trump won the election. Now, the Fed is saying they’ll do three rate hikes instead of the expected two in 2017. This caused rates to bump up about half a percent. What do interest rate increases mean in regards to a buyer’s payment and the overall market?

According to The Wall Street Journal, if we adjust for inflation since 2006, housing prices are actually 16 percent below their 2006 peaks in most areas. Many economists are saying the demand for housing remains as strong as ever and that recent rate increases will have a minimal effect.

However, people usually make home purchases based on payment. So as interest rates increase, somebody thinking of purchasing should know a 1/2 percent increase in rates for a $500,000 loan, increases the payment about $140-$150 (and even less after “tax benefits”).

Should buyers and borrowers wait to see if rates fall before moving forward with transactions? Jay Voorhees of JVM Lending says absolutely not. Borrowers can easily take advantage of no-cost refi’s if rates fall.

And, as Gary Shilling wrote in a Forbes column on Dec. 6, he thinks the markets massively overreacted to Trump’s election. He points out that the root causes of weak economic growth (that have kept rates low) will remain. He also says that Trump’s proposed tax cuts and stimulus programs will be watered down by Congress; the expectations of an economic boom are overblown.

What do you believe? Are you bullish or bearish? This election reinforced the notion that nobody has a crystal ball and sitting on the fence waiting for one outcome or another may be the worst thing you can do.

December/January housing market is stronger than you think

December and January are usually busy months with holidays, vacations and school breaks. But, contrary to popular belief, that does not mean the housing market slows down. On the contrary, actually!

Based on 2015 numbers, listing your home in December and January actually give you a benefit. You can garner multiple offers and close above list price. In Spring, you get the price increase but also more houses listed, which lead to many more choices for buyers, making multiple offers rarer (or, you’ll get fewer offers at least, like 3 vs. 8 in Dec./Jan.).

If you’d like to take advantage of this market in December and January, reach out to me. I’d love to help you navigate the holiday season weather you are selling or buying a home or just consult with you on the best overall strategy for you!

Market Commentary – Carol Rodini (Part 2)

As promised, I said I would write a couple of blogs from a Carol Rodini speaking event I attended. The first blog gives her thoughts on how China and Saudi Arabia may affect the real estate market in the coming months. Today, we’re discussing a general Bay Area real estate overview.

Carol said that we (in the East Bay) are usually 6-8 months behind the other side of the Bay – meaning San Francisco and the Peninsula. What is currently happening there (and we may see this in the later part of the year) is that the media is reporting a growth of inventory. This type of news has adverse effects on real estate. In reality, there are two types of real estate: desirable and non-desirable. The media bundles them together, but Carol pointed out how they are different.

Prices have gone down on high-end properties, and buyers are getting hesitant and willing to stand by and watch what happens. For example, a house in San Francisco that was listed for $1.5 million sent out 30 disclosure packages. One buyer submitted a pre-emptive offer of $1.75 million all cash and the seller didn’t take it because they thought they could get more and wanted to market it a bit longer. On the offer due date, none came in. So they went back to the cash buyer and that person said no.

A few takeaways:

1. You can’t be over-priced in this market.

2. Buyers in the city are no longer playing the competition game.

3. Sellers need to be aggressive with their pricing, by pricing it slightly under market. The reason? Millennials buy with their stock options. And with the market volatility and changes, this is making them a bit more hesitant.

The East Bay will have a great spring. We traditionally see a bit of a slow-down in the summer, and depending on what the stock market does, we may follow in the steps of the city. Our average price point is much lower and we are seeing a bunch of first-time home buyers that can’t afford San Francisco or the Peninsula who are looking at the East Bay – at least until the prices drop on the other side of the Bay.

1. Mortgage rates ride a rollercoaster­­—but are at historic lows now