Low housing inventory, eroding affordability and rising interest rates made pending sales on a year-over-year basis for the month of February suffer after a good start to the year in closed escrow sales. Also, sellers simply aren’t selling.
They did see elevated market activity, but the Bay Area pending sales specifically were down year-to-year for the fifth straight month. According to the release, the Bay Area has been plagued by a shortage of homes on the market and poor affordability.
We have seen an increase in listings starting in April, but with pent-up demand, buyers are getting frustrated losing out in multiple-offer scenarios and with ever-increasing prices.
If you want to know more about the market, give me a call!
We found a Realtor.com article recently that ranked the hottest real estate markets for February 2017. Nobody will be surprised to see that three of the top five (Vallejo, San Francisco and San Jose) are in the Bay Area.
According to the article, a large part of Vallejo’s rise to number one on the hottest real estate markets list is due to their drop in median days on market. It wasn’t too long ago that Vallejo went bankrupt and Mare Island redevelopment was in the crapper – that still might be an area for investment.
I also found out that Seattle is the fastest-growing market, which doesn’t surprise me at all. Seattle seems to be on the fast track to San Francisco status, with a similar culture and a bunch of new tech companies migrating their headquarters North. I currently have a client selling in Pleasant Hill and moving to Seattle and he is finding it is more expensive to purchase there.
Either way, the West Coast is HOT! If you are looking to buy or sell in the East Bay, please feel free to reach out and ask for my help!
We’ve seen rates increase since Donald Trump won the election. Now, the Fed is saying they’ll do three rate hikes instead of the expected two in 2017. This caused rates to bump up about half a percent. What do interest rate increases mean in regards to a buyer’s payment and the overall market?
According to The Wall Street Journal, if we adjust for inflation since 2006, housing prices are actually 16 percent below their 2006 peaks in most areas. Many economists are saying the demand for housing remains as strong as ever and that recent rate increases will have a minimal effect.
However, people usually make home purchases based on payment. So as interest rates increase, somebody thinking of purchasing should know a 1/2 percent increase in rates for a $500,000 loan, increases the payment about $140-$150 (and even less after “tax benefits”).
Should buyers and borrowers wait to see if rates fall before moving forward with transactions? Jay Voorhees of JVM Lending says absolutely not. Borrowers can easily take advantage of no-cost refi’s if rates fall.
And, as Gary Shilling wrote in a Forbes column on Dec. 6, he thinks the markets massively overreacted to Trump’s election. He points out that the root causes of weak economic growth (that have kept rates low) will remain. He also says that Trump’s proposed tax cuts and stimulus programs will be watered down by Congress; the expectations of an economic boom are overblown.
What do you believe? Are you bullish or bearish? This election reinforced the notion that nobody has a crystal ball and sitting on the fence waiting for one outcome or another may be the worst thing you can do.
December and January are usually busy months with holidays, vacations and school breaks. But, contrary to popular belief, that does not mean the housing market slows down. On the contrary, actually!
Based on 2015 numbers, listing your home in December and January actually give you a benefit. You can garner multiple offers and close above list price. In Spring, you get the price increase but also more houses listed, which lead to many more choices for buyers, making multiple offers rarer (or, you’ll get fewer offers at least, like 3 vs. 8 in Dec./Jan.).
If you’d like to take advantage of this market in December and January, reach out to me. I’d love to help you navigate the holiday season weather you are selling or buying a home or just consult with you on the best overall strategy for you!
Carol said that we (in the East Bay) are usually 6-8 months behind the other side of the Bay – meaning San Francisco and the Peninsula. What is currently happening there (and we may see this in the later part of the year) is that the media is reporting a growth of inventory. This type of news has adverse effects on real estate. In reality, there are two types of real estate: desirable and non-desirable. The media bundles them together, but Carol pointed out how they are different.
Prices have gone down on high-end properties, and buyers are getting hesitant and willing to stand by and watch what happens. For example, a house in San Francisco that was listed for $1.5 million sent out 30 disclosure packages. One buyer submitted a pre-emptive offer of $1.75 million all cash and the seller didn’t take it because they thought they could get more and wanted to market it a bit longer. On the offer due date, none came in. So they went back to the cash buyer and that person said no.
A few takeaways:
1. You can’t be over-priced in this market.
2. Buyers in the city are no longer playing the competition game.
3. Sellers need to be aggressive with their pricing, by pricing it slightly under market. The reason? Millennials buy with their stock options. And with the market volatility and changes, this is making them a bit more hesitant.
The East Bay will have a great spring. We traditionally see a bit of a slow-down in the summer, and depending on what the stock market does, we may follow in the steps of the city. Our average price point is much lower and we are seeing a bunch of first-time home buyers that can’t afford San Francisco or the Peninsula who are looking at the East Bay – at least until the prices drop on the other side of the Bay.