What happens in a slowing market?

Consultant Kitty Cole has some interesting thoughts on the slowing market that got me thinking: what exactly happens in a slowing market? I’ve re-purposed parts of her blog below and added my own thoughts on the market at this pace, as well as interest rates in terms of what somebody can buy.

So, is this market change normal or is the slowing a correction? Here are a few thoughts from Kitty’s blog to help you figure it out:

The market has begun to change, albeit slowly. A small segment of the market has slowed down in several Bay Area counties, including San Francisco. The indicators of a slowing market are that the number of active listings rise, the “Days on Market” increases and price reductions occur. You may also see more contingent offers (but fewer with no contingencies at all). My two cents: In Contra Costa County, we are in line with these indicators. The outer-lying areas such as Concord is where I am really seeing the price reductions and increased time on market. However, if the property is remodeled and priced right, there are still multiple offers, just not as many.

The buyer pool for your property has decreased in the last year because the interest rates have risen more than a full point. For every full percentage point they rise, the buyer’s purchasing power goes down by almost 10%. Buyers who could afford a home worth $1 million last year, can now afford $905,000. That alone will significantly impact the buyer pool.

As far as projections go, CAR and NAR both feel that there will be a slower 2019. They forecast a slow-down in the 2nd half of next year, but Kitty’s theory is that it will happen a bit sooner since some market segments are showing signs of correction. The economy is healthy and the unemployment rate is hovering consistently. The Fed has stated that there will likely be 2 interest rate hikes this year, which will price out some buyers. Given how long we’ve been in recovery mode in the real estate industry, it’s normal to expect a correction.

The economy: The economy is healthy (the GDP was 2.0% for the first 3 months and 4.2% for the 2nd quarter) and the unemployment rate is hovering around 4.2%. There have been 9 + years of recovery in the economy. There have been 5 and half years of recovery in the real estate market.

More of my two cents: Many analysts are predicting 2020 for a correction. Most are saying there will be a correction, the question is just “when?” We still have low inventory and our local economy is robust, so for me, the question is “will it pick back up in September and October after all the summer vacations are over and the kids are back in school?” Or, are these current changes going to continue? Nobody has a crystal ball, so we will see. Sellers who are on the fence will be considering “is this is about as high as the market is going to go for the near future?” If you believe that, then it is time to sell.

Is there a recession coming in 2020?

Is there a recession coming in 2020 or sooner? And if so, what does that mean for the real estate industry? Additionally, how do Chinese buyers affect California real estate? Jay Vorhees of JVM Lending (with a little help from The National Real Estate Post) has you covered:

The National Real Estate Post had a great video today with information I thought was well worth sharing. Marketing commentator Barry Habib discusses margin compression, the coming 2020 recession, why he is bullish on real estate even if a recession hits, and why Chinese buyers influence California real estate so much.

RECESSION IN 2020 – WHY?

Mr. Habib agrees with other prognosticators I have cited in previous blogs and illuminates two reasons why a recession is likely in 2020:

Short-term rates are almost the same as long-term rates. I won’t explain the economics, but I will say we are at this stage in the interest rate cycle now; and
Unemployment has likely bottomed out and will only increase at this point.

BULLISH ON REAL ESTATE EVEN IN RECESSION

Mr. Habib remains very bullish on real estate – even if a recession hits. He thinks a 10% correction is very unlikely for several reasons:

1. It is different this time for reasons we have explained in previous blogs – tighter lending guidelines, more structural housing demand, etc.
2. Rates come down during recessions and that props up real estate prices; and
3. According to Mr. Habib, if you look at data from the last six recessions (other than the 2008 meltdown) you will see that real estate prices usually do not decrease significantly.

CA PRICES HURT BY CHINESE BUYERS PULLING OUT

15% of the money spent on real estate transactions in California is from China. But b/c China’s currency is now so much weaker than it was relative to the U.S. dollar, Chinese buyers are now sitting on the sidelines. This drop off in demand is already affecting prices, particularly on the high end. But, according to Mr. Habib, this too will end and Chinese demand will return.

I hope this helped you learn a little something about the impending recession, how it affects real estate, and why Chinese buyers may affect the market long-term!

Now, with a little input from us:

Comments from Bob Schwab – Inverted Yield Curve

Our in-house lender has remarked that one of the indicators a recession may be on the horizon is an inverted yield curve. I asked what that means, and here was his response (note any errors are mine via translation):

“The U.S. runs a deficit, and in order to pay on the deficit, they sell treasury notes and pay interest to the purchaser. Normally, the longer the you take the note, the higher the rate or return; [in the] shorter term, the lower the rate the government will pay you. When the short-term notes have a higher rate than the long-term is when we have an inverted yield curve. That margin has been steadily decreasing, and we have been about 30 points away from an inverted yield curve, and thus why the buzz of a correction is coursing through the media. I am seeing a different effect; in June we had a wave of listings come on the market, when it usually quiets a bit due to summer vacations. I believe sellers are thinking prices might have reached a peak and now is the time to get their home on the market, which means we now have more inventory and more for buyers to choose from. The outcome is price reductions, things sitting longer, etc., because buyers now are thinking they will have a wait-and-see strategy!”

Are home values really inflated?

For the 71st month in a row, the housing market experienced year-over-year gains. As of January, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $240,500, which was a 5.8 percent increase from January 2017 ($227,300). According to Bob Schwab from Finance of America, this may lead many to believe that home values are overinflated.

Schwab, and Zillow, disagree with that common opinion. Zillow says: “If the housing bubble and bust had not happened, and home values had instead appreciated at a steady pace, the median home value would be higher than its current value.”

I’ve pulled some information and graphs from Schwab’s article to help demonstrate why home prices are exactly where they should be. First, a graph showing actual median home sales prices from 2000 through 2017:

By itself, this graph shows home values rising early in the century, then tumbling down, and now climbing back up. This may give off the impression that a pattern is emerging, and another tumble is coming. But, if you look at this second chart, indicating where prices would naturally go with the market had there not been a boom and bust, you see something different:

The blue bars represent where prices would have been if they increased normally, at an annual appreciation rate of 3.6 percent. By adding that percentage to the actual 2000 price and repeating for each year, we can see that prices were overvalued during the boom, undervalued during the bust, and a little bit lower than where they should be right now!

All in all, thanks to Bob Schwab for pointing out that we should be comfortable with current home values, and understand that the market actually isn’t overinflated, based on historic appreciation levels.

Owners have the largest mortgages in history!

It’s no secret that the housing market has been unbalanced over the past few years. Prices have been rising, and with them, so have average home loans.

According to The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average home loan size is the largest its been in the history of its survey, which began in 1990.

Additionally, the median mortgage size was only about 3.3 times the median annual income in 1990 – now, it’s more than 5 times as big. This is likely due to the increase in housing prices, buyers getting bigger homes and lower interest rates over the years.

Here’s a look at some housing market characteristics for select years.

Housing market data points — Courtesy Realtor.com (link in text above)

According to Mike Ervin of Supreme Lending, people are just waiting and waiting for mortgage rates to go down. People who are using securitizers like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to wait until the Fed buys up more mortgage bonds so that rates will go down. It is unknown if that will happen, but rates have dropped in 2017.

Multiple factors can affect the bond and mortgage markets. The most recent major event was the Trump election and presidency, which saw a large immediate increase in mortgage rates, which have since rebounded, even with the Fed raising rates.

In California, we are in the wealth-building business and real estate in the Bay Area is going to be a good investment for years to come. I am here to advise, provide insight and help you build wealth through real estate.

Pending home sales are down in CA – what does it mean?

According to the California Association of Realtors, pending home sales have dialed back and marked the weakest February in three years.

Low housing inventory, eroding affordability and rising interest rates made pending sales on a year-over-year basis for the month of February suffer after a good start to the year in closed escrow sales. Also, sellers simply aren’t selling.

They did see elevated market activity, but the Bay Area pending sales specifically were down year-to-year for the fifth straight month. According to the release, the Bay Area has been plagued by a shortage of homes on the market and poor affordability.

We have seen an increase in listings starting in April, but with pent-up demand, buyers are getting frustrated losing out in multiple-offer scenarios and with ever-increasing prices.

If you want to know more about the market, give me a call!

More change coming to downtown WC

The ever-evolving landscape of downtown Walnut Creek is about to change again. Soon enough, there will be another new restaurant and Amazon’s new brick-and-mortar location.

Citra Grill, which has held a corner location by the movie theater for a few years now, is already out. In its place goes KoJa, which is a food truck-turned-restaurant that serves up a Korean-Japanese sandwich fusion with crispy garlic rice buns instead of bread.

Additionally, there is a physical Amazon location coming to Walnut Creek. The new bookstore, which will go in Broadway Plaza, will infuse a little literature into a town that lacks it. I find it ironic that Amazon’s business model literally (pun intended) closed most of the brick and mortar stores because it was much cheaper to order books via Prime. How I have missed browsing a book store before a movie, but isn’t that the problem? We as consumers browsed and then bought online and now with Audibles, I just download a book. I am curious to see how and why this fits their warehouse-style business model that ships to your door.

The last update is one recommended to me by a team member. Apparently, there’s a new sushi joint next to Crepes Ooh La La called Kurumi Sushi that gives gigantic portions for fair prices and which he says is above average in taste! I personally don’t think you can have both (great food and large portions), especially with Walnut Creek real estate rents, so you decide and let us know.

How rate increases affect your payments

We’ve seen rates increase since Donald Trump won the election. Now, the Fed is saying they’ll do three rate hikes instead of the expected two in 2017. This caused rates to bump up about half a percent. What do interest rate increases mean in regards to a buyer’s payment and the overall market?

According to The Wall Street Journal, if we adjust for inflation since 2006, housing prices are actually 16 percent below their 2006 peaks in most areas. Many economists are saying the demand for housing remains as strong as ever and that recent rate increases will have a minimal effect.

However, people usually make home purchases based on payment. So as interest rates increase, somebody thinking of purchasing should know a 1/2 percent increase in rates for a $500,000 loan, increases the payment about $140-$150 (and even less after “tax benefits”).

Should buyers and borrowers wait to see if rates fall before moving forward with transactions? Jay Voorhees of JVM Lending says absolutely not. Borrowers can easily take advantage of no-cost refi’s if rates fall.

And, as Gary Shilling wrote in a Forbes column on Dec. 6, he thinks the markets massively overreacted to Trump’s election. He points out that the root causes of weak economic growth (that have kept rates low) will remain. He also says that Trump’s proposed tax cuts and stimulus programs will be watered down by Congress; the expectations of an economic boom are overblown.

What do you believe? Are you bullish or bearish? This election reinforced the notion that nobody has a crystal ball and sitting on the fence waiting for one outcome or another may be the worst thing you can do.

Living Near Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods Improves Your Home Value

Really? According to the Huffington Post, homes located within a mile of Trader Joe’s stores are seeing a significant increase in value, compared to homes that are not within that range. Same thing goes for Whole Foods!

Luckily for us living in the immediate East Bay, where healthy eating and living is quite common, there are at least 12 Trader Joe’s and no less than six Whole Foods (including one each in Walnut Creek!). Chances are, as HuffPo says, if you’re close enough to one of these stores, your home value will see an uptick. I am not so sure this shows the entire picture; maybe Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods just tend to pick more affluent neighborhoods. I have never heard a buyer say they would like to be in close proximity to either of those stores when thinking about purchasing a home. On the other hand, I personally live within walking distance to both stores in Walnut Creek. Do I like it, absolutely! I just finished eating a salad from Whole Foods and often stop off at TJ’s on my way home.

On the other hand, I personally live within walking distance to both stores in Walnut Creek. Do I like it? Absolutely! I just finished eating a salad from Whole Foods and often stop off at TJ’s on my way home.

For me, the real estate market is never boring and always provides interesting insights – location and surrounding amenities play such a huge role in pricing. Walnut Creek and the Bay Area overall are much different than the rest of the country: great for those who already own, but not so much for those trying to find a home or move in from another state. I feel very blessed to own my own and live in such a beautiful place, whether I am located within a mile of Trader Joe’ or not.