Silicon Valley: Moving East?

I came across a very interesting article in The New York Times recently about Silicon Valley attempting to find fertile ground in the Midwest. It’s a fascinating look at how the real estate market in the United States is rapidly changing.

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For example, Amazon is looking for a city to place its second headquarters. That is going to lead to a massive shift in where large tech companies start looking at places to re-locate. It’s well known that California is in a real estate a bubble. Silicon Valley, especially, is one of the richest areas in the entire country – if not the world – and one move could shake up a local economy in a huge way.

I think trying to replicate another Silicon Valley would be difficult; it is like the perfect storm – top-notch universities, a port, three international airports, the gateway to the far west and great weather. However, companies will look for more affordable areas to do business and states that provide tax incentives (think Tesla in Nevada). It doesn’t mean they will ditch the Bay Area completely.

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You know things are crazy here when even the tech elites in San Francisco are tired of San Francisco. They say it’s “congested” and “expensive” in the Bay Area, and are apparently mesmerized by the affordable homes and real estate in the Midwest. If you live in the Midwest I wonder how many hip spots would there be, not to mention the possibility of snow…what are your thoughts?

Don’t hold your breath for another recession

According to an Inman.com article, Kevin Thorpe (Global Chief Economist at Cushman & Wakefield) says we are going to have a very long economic expansion.

At the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference, Thorpe said, “The U.S. will not be going into recessions anytime soon. Recessions don’t just happen. First, we need to see imbalances somewhere in the economy — too much credit, too much exuberance in any particular sector.”

A frequent speaker in the local real estate arena, Carol Rodini and some Bay Area economists agree that some changes Donald Trump’s Republican cabinet will make – redoing the tax code, trying to replace Obamacare, etc. – will be good for the economy.

Carol recently noted the top 10 tech companies in Silicon Valley are sitting on about $3 trillion in cash between their domestic and foreign accounts. Those companies grew about 7 percent last year and they believe that will continue this year.

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So, if and when we end up in a recession, she believes it will be about a 4 percent dip. The Bay Area, because of Silicon Valley, will not feel it like the rest of the nation. For those buyers who are hoping for a dip so housing will be more affordable, you might want to buy now, before interest rates go up. For sellers: now and the near future is a good time to list!