Eliminating PMI (private mortgage insurance)

According to my friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending, there are three options for eliminating the private mortgage insurance (PMI) obligation associated with a conventional loan plan. We go over his three options below, with a little input from yours truly:

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Option #1: Refinancing

If your property appreciates to the point where we can garner a new appraisal to support a value high enough to reduce your loan-to-value (LTV) ratio to 80 percent or less, you can refinance into a new loan with no PMI. This assumes, of course, that rates remain favorable. Keep in mind that most appraisers will correlate to the purchase price for the first six months, making it wise to wait at least this long to start the refinance process.

Option #2: Paying down

You can eliminate PMI by paying your loan down if you notify your servicer with your request, have a good payment history, and are willing to prove to the servicer that your property has not depreciated with an appraisal in some cases. This can help you pay down your loan to an amount equal to 80 percent of the original purchase price.

Option #3: Proving home

If your loan is owned or backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, you can eliminate PMI by notifying your servicer with your request, as long as your loan has seasoned for two years with a good payment history. You’d also have to provide a current appraisal with high enough value to support a 75 percent LTV. If your loan is more than five years old, your LTV can be 80 percent. If you prove your home has appreciated to the point where the LTV is at 75 percent or less, you can eliminate PMI this way.

As rates increase, the option of refinancing becomes less feasible. There are currently loans called 80/10/10 or 80/15/5 where you take a HELOC (home equity line of credit). The buyer puts down 10 or 15 percent and the HELOC covers the balance and there is no PMI. The only issue is the HELOC has higher rates that tend to move with the market. They work well if one gets abonus or is expecting a pay increase and the HELOC can be paid off quickly. Always speak to your lender about the various options. I know from experience if you work with JVM, you are in good hands!

Why bank statements are so important!

Our friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending has shared another important blog recently: why bank statements are so important for borrowing and financing for a home. You’ll want to read on to see what Jay says, especially if you’re in the market for a new home. You’ll find a copy of the (slightly re-formatted) blog copied below:

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STRONG BORROWER DENIED FINANCING – WHY?

We once had a borrower who qualified for financing in every way (income, assets, credit, etc.) but she was denied financing. The reason?  She had five unexplainable overdraft charges on her bank statements that indicated she could not manage cash.

Every borrower has to provide bank statements for every account used for “cash to close” (down payment and closing costs). There are no exceptions because lenders have to ensure that down payment funds were not recently borrowed or obtained through illicit means.

“Borrowed” down payment funds are not considered “seasoned” and they create debt ratio issues b/c they need to be paid back. In any case, lenders are required to go through every bank statement with a fine-toothed comb to look for every irregularity. Irregularities include overdraft charges, unusually large deposits, and unexplained regular monthly deposits or withdrawals, among other things.

Unusually large deposits have to be paper-trailed and explained or they are assumed to be borrowed funds (and they can’t be used for a down payment/closing costs funds). And unexplained regular monthly deposits and withdrawals often indicate the existence of undisclosed side businesses, support payments or other liabilities.

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In any case, borrowers often get frustrated when we ask them to explain so many things that are buried in their bank statements. But, we have to ask because bank statements tell lenders so much more than meets the eye.

This is, in fact, often one of the most time-consuming aspects of the loan approval process.

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On a related note, Jay discusses something at the footnote of this blog: rates have climbed recently after a stretch of stability. President Trump’s comments about the Fed raising rates too quickly were the primary cause, but, according to the Wall Street Journal, the Fed may now be more likely to raise rates than it was prior to the President’s comments. This is because it will want to prove its independence from political pressure. How ironic!

Is there a recession coming in 2020?

Is there a recession coming in 2020 or sooner? And if so, what does that mean for the real estate industry? Additionally, how do Chinese buyers affect California real estate? Jay Vorhees of JVM Lending (with a little help from The National Real Estate Post) has you covered:

The National Real Estate Post had a great video today with information I thought was well worth sharing. Marketing commentator Barry Habib discusses margin compression, the coming 2020 recession, why he is bullish on real estate even if a recession hits, and why Chinese buyers influence California real estate so much.

RECESSION IN 2020 – WHY?

Mr. Habib agrees with other prognosticators I have cited in previous blogs and illuminates two reasons why a recession is likely in 2020:

  1. Short-term rates are almost the same as long-term rates. I won’t explain the economics, but I will say we are at this stage in the interest rate cycle now; and
  2. Unemployment has likely bottomed out and will only increase at this point.

BULLISH ON REAL ESTATE EVEN IN RECESSION

Mr. Habib remains very bullish on real estate – even if a recession hits. He thinks a 10% correction is very unlikely for several reasons:

    1. It is different this time for reasons we have explained in previous blogs – tighter lending guidelines, more structural housing demand, etc.
    2. Rates come down during recessions and that props up real estate prices; and
    3. According to Mr. Habib, if you look at data from the last six recessions (other than the 2008 meltdown) you will see that real estate prices usually do not decrease significantly.

CA PRICES HURT BY CHINESE BUYERS PULLING OUT

15% of the money spent on real estate transactions in California is from China. But b/c China’s currency is now so much weaker than it was relative to the U.S. dollar, Chinese buyers are now sitting on the sidelines. This drop off in demand is already affecting prices, particularly on the high end. But, according to Mr. Habib, this too will end and Chinese demand will return.

I hope this helped you learn a little something about the impending recession, how it affects real estate, and why Chinese buyers may affect the market long-term!

Now, with a little input from us:

Comments from Bob Schwab – Inverted Yield Curve

Our in-house lender has remarked that one of the indicators a recession may be on the horizon is an inverted yield curve. I asked what that means, and here was his response (note any errors are mine via translation):

“The U.S. runs a deficit, and in order to pay on the deficit, they sell treasury notes and pay interest to the purchaser. Normally, the longer the you take the note, the higher the rate or return; [in the] shorter term, the lower the rate the government will pay you. When the short-term notes have a higher rate than the long-term is when we have an inverted yield curve. That margin has been steadily decreasing, and we have been about 30 points away from an inverted yield curve, and thus why the buzz of a correction is coursing through the media. I am seeing a different effect; in June we had a wave of listings come on the market, when it usually quiets a bit due to summer vacations. I believe sellers are thinking prices might have reached a peak and now is the time to get their home on the market, which means we now have more inventory and more for buyers to choose from. The outcome is price reductions, things sitting longer, etc., because buyers now are thinking they will have a wait-and-see strategy!”

Interest rates and purchasing power

According to Certified Mortgage Consultant Bob Schwab, interest rates you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power. Check out his comments here:
According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage are currently at 4.61%, which is still near record lows in comparison to recent history! The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power. Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.
The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a home within the national median price range while keeping your principal and interest payments between $1,850-$1,900 a month. With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be closer to 5% by this time next year.
Jay Vorhees of JVM Lending has a take on higher rates and how they affect qualifying, too:
How Do Higher Rates Affect Qualifying? Potentially A Lot.
RATES ARE GOING UP, REST ASSURED
We’ve said that at least a hundred times over the years but this time it is a reality b/c the Fed is no longer buying bonds to push rates down, and b/c the Fed is very determined to push rates up in general. We saw a slight dip in rates recently largely b/c of economic turmoil in Italy, but rates are expected to climb another 1/2 percent this year alone.
HOW WILL RATE INCREASES AFFECT THE QUALIFICATIONS OF A PRE-APPROVED BORROWER?
Rule of thumb: A 1/2 percent increase in rate will increase a mortgage payment by about $30 for every $100,000 borrowed. Hence, if a buyer is looking at a $600,000 mortgage, her payment will increase by about $180 if rates go up 1/2 percent. In regard to qualifying, an increase in rate could easily shave off $25,000 to $50,000 from a buyer’s maximum.
For example, let’s say “Jeremy” the buyer is pre-approved for a maximum $750,000 purchase with 20% down at a rate of 4.75%. Let’s also assume Jeremy’s maximum payment (Principal, Interest, Taxes, Insurance) is $4,000 and his income is $8,900 per month, giving him a maximum debt ratio of just under 45% (all numbers are rounded). If rates increase 1/2 percent, Jeremy’s maximum qualification would drop to about $715,000 b/c that is the most Jeremy could buy in the higher rate environment without pushing his payment over his $4,000 limit.
In other words, if Jeremy’s rate increases from 4.75% to 5.25%, he will lose about $35,000 of purchasing power. What can poor Jeremy do?
A. Consider an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM). Jeremy can knock as much as 1/2 percent off of his rate by considering a 7/1 ARM. Knowing that very few buyers ever keep their mortgages more than 7 years will help him rest easy with his ARM.
B. Buy now while the getting is good! If Jeremy is hellbent on a 30-year fixed rate loan, he should buy now to lock in today’s rates. BUT – we will still remind Jeremy that even if rates are in the mid-5’s, they are STILL a “gift” by historical standards.
C. Buy a $50 tent and a motorcycle, and skip the house thing. I did that in my early twenties, and it was really fun. Jeremy might want to do the same. But don’t worry, we won’t suggest it. Lastly – should Jeremy worry that higher rates might hurt home prices? According to this blog, no :).
Note:  for those living in a rabbit hole, last week the Feds raised interest rates and stated instead of one more rate hike, it will most likely be two more this year and then 3 more in 2019.

JVM Lending: If appraisal comes in low…

…a buyer is not overpaying! Appraisals and market value can be a tricky math problem for buyers to figure out, but that’s why my friend Jay Vorhees from JVM Lending has put together this handy-dandy blog to explain. Take a look below:

When Appraised Value Does Not Equal Market Value

We have a buyer who was convinced she was “overpaying” for her property because her appraisal came in low. But, there were multiple offers for her property that were very close in price to hers, and there are nearby pending sales that are also similar in price. The entire issue has to do with appraisal guidelines. We repeat this often in this blog because the issue comes up so often: appraised value often does not equal market value.

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If there are multiple buyers willing to pay $850,000 for a property in an open market, then that property’s market value is $850,000. But, appraisers cannot appraise properties (in most cases) above the highest closed comparable sale in the neighborhood. So, if there are no closed sales above $800,000, that property will usually not appraise for over $800,000.

But, again, that does not mean the above property is not “worth” $850,000. Once this was explained to our buyer, she was no longer concerned about her low appraisal. This is something every buyer needs to understand in a fast-appreciating market where contract prices are tough to support in an appraisal.

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This is something I deal with constantly with my own clients. Jay hits the nail on the head here: appraisals may come in lower than expected, but it is not equal to a diminishing value on the property. For more helpful information like this, give me a call! I can talk about real estate all day 😉

What can bring down house prices and rates?

What could bring house prices and rates down? According to my friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending, it could be something called “monetary tightening,” or an experiment conducted by The Fed to infuse the economy with cash. Basically, what Jay is getting at, is that you’ll never know exactly when to buy or sell (or when a market dictates that decision), and that assuming you know the market intimately trying to time the market may be a mistake. Read on for more from our slightly-edited version of Jay’s blog:

Dude Sells Too Soon!

I was at a graduation party yesterday and the host told me how his law partner sold his Silicon Valley home two years ago because he was convinced the market had peaked.

It hadn’t. The poor guy’s former home has gone up another 20% since he sold, and so has his rent. The host made the further point that people should never try to time a market they are not intimately familiar with.

I like to remind everyone that nobody should ever try to time a market, no matter how much they know, because there are so many variables they have no control over – especially when those variables involve the Fed.

Elephant in Room: Monetary Tightening

There is a huge elephant in the room that nobody is talking about: Massive Monetary Tightening via Higher Rates and Quantitative Tightening.

After the meltdown, the Fed engaged in a massive experiment known as Quantitative Easing, where the Fed bought trillions of dollars of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. These bond purchases increased the money supply by flooding financial institutions with cash in an effort to increase lending and liquidity. The Fed also lowered the rates to unprecedently low levels.

The low rates and huge capital infusion pushed up asset prices, particularly with respect to stocks, bonds and real estate. This is what usually happens when the Fed increases the money supply, and this is partially why we see such high asset prices now. Many people believe high prices are just a function of too much demand chasing too little supply, but that is not always the case.

Excess demand is often driven by excess capital in an economy; people want to park their capital somewhere, as opposed to letting it sit in bank accounts, so they buy assets. In any case, the Fed created about $4 trillion of new money up through 2016, and in 2017 they reversed the policy! They are now not only pushing up rates but also selling bonds with the intention of vacuuming about $2 trillion out of the economy.

This will likely have an adverse effect on asset and housing prices at some point. Do I think real estate prices will tank? No. I still like real estate because the fundamentals are so strong in many areas. But, I don’t think we’ll continue to see such strong appreciation, and now might be a good time for Silicon Valley lawyers to sell their homes.

Fed Could Reverse Again

Nobody is more aware of this than the Fed, and they are watching closely. If Fed policymakers see the economy showing excessive signs of softening, they could very likely change course again – and lower rates. Again, nobody knows what will happen because we have never seen anything like this before! We are in the midst of one giant experiment, and we all get to be the lab rats.

The Cost of Waiting

I generally encourage all my clients to be patient in the home-buying process. You’re looking for your dream home, and a house to call your home where memories are created. You want to exercise patience and really find the right place. However, at some point, waiting too long or sitting on the fence can have consequences.

As you’ll see in the blog from my friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending below, waiting too long on a home purchase can be costly. He highlights one particluar (anonymous) client who kept quibbling over small price differences and that stubbornness led to her not only missing out on her dream home, but settling for an entirely different town. To add insult to injury, the home she wanted has doubled in value since!

Read on to learn more:

COST OF WAITING IN 2012

In 2012 and 2013, we had a borrower looking to buy in Oakland and she was obsessed with getting the absolute lowest possible price.

As a result, she kept walking away from transactions, b/c of $5,000 to $10,000 price discrepancies, even though she was shopping in the $650,000 range in what was becoming the hottest market in the country.

The $10,000 differences she quibbled over worked out to be less than $50 per month in payment. What is most interesting is that she waited so long that she was ultimately unable to buy in her desired Rockridge neighborhood altogether, and she ended up buying in a suburb east of Oakland.

The houses she was bidding on are now worth twice what she was offering too. Her “cost of waiting,” or cost of not executing, was extremely high, to say the least. Unfortunately, her story is not unique.

RATES HIT 7 YEAR HIGH

According to this CNBC Report, “interest rates are surging to their highest level in seven years.”

And, it looks like they are going to continue to climb, based on continued strong economic reports and announcements by the Fed.

Despite the rate increases, the demand for housing remains very strong. In addition, property values continue to appreciate at a surprisingly fast pace.

COST OF WAITING IN 2018

These factors (increasing rates and appreciation) combined make the “cost of waiting” as high as ever.

In a recent National Real Estate Post Video, at about the 9-minute mark, Barry Habib uses a $500,000 Orange County purchase as an example.

At current appreciation rates, waiting even six months can cost a buyer an additional $200 per month, according to Mr. Habib.

Waiting a year can cost over $400 per month.

Pre-Qual vs Pre-Approval

People don’t understand how knowing the difference between pre-qualification and pre-approval can make a huge difference in an offer being accepted, and how the right choice can make them a stronger buyer. It’s extremely important! Luckily, my friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending broke it down for us:

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Panicked Borrower on Verge of Losing Deposit

We had a borrower in contract come to us a few weeks ago in panic mode. The reason? He was on the verge of losing his earnest money deposit b/c his loan had just blown up at America’s largest mortgage lender.

The loan officer had only done a “pre-qualification” and had missed a major issue with the borrower’s commision income. We were able to salvage the deal and still close on time, but the risk to the borrower was enormous.

Pre-Qualification vs. Pre-Approval

Most lenders only “pre-qualify” borrowers. Pre-qualifications consist only of a perfunctory glance at a credit report and a few income documents. Most lenders do not do full pre-approvals b/c they require so much more work.

Why Pre-Approvals?

We do full pre-approvals b/c they are absolutely necessary. Full pre-approvals (1) allow our borrowers to make non-contingent offers; (2) ensure there are no major issues missed; and (3) allow us to close in 14 days b/c we do all the work on the front end.

In other words, full pre-approvals make our clients’ offers far more competitive, and they eliminate stress for everyone – buyers, sellers, Realtors, escrow and us :).

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Image: Masonknowsmortgages.com

Full pre-approvals can take several hours, requiring us to review income, asset, employment and credit documents with a fine-toothed comb. But experience has shown that they are well worth the effort. 

Issues that can be missed with only a “pre-qualification” include the following:

  • missed 2106 expenses; 
  • unexplained and unusable deposits; 
  • side businesses with losses; 
  • K1 and partnership losses;
  • spousal and child support obligations;
  • lack of employment seasoning;
  • lack of bonus seasoning; 
  • lack of commission seasoning; 
  • debts not on credit reports

A major source of our business includes transactions that blow up at other lenders b/c the loan officers only did pre-qualifications. Realtors come to us b/c they know we can make the deals work and also b/c we can usually still close within the remaining contract time.

Compare and contrast: VA vs. FHA

VA and FHA loans are both backed or insured by the Federal Government, so realtors often confuse the guidelines between the two types of loans. There are a lot of differences, however, and my friend Jay Vorhees at JVM Lending has the scoop below:

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Appraisals: Similar

We’ll just let this blog, by JVM’s Appraisal Manager, do the talking.  I, Kristin added a few thoughts in brackets afterwards.

Appraisers: Different

The VA loan forces people to use “VA approved appraisers,” which they assign. That often makes the quality worse. The FHA allows us to pick appraisers from whomever we want.

Property Condition: Different

The VA requires clear Section I termite reports, and clear Section II if the items are health and safety risks. FHA allows for “as is” transactions, and does not require a clear Section I.  (There have been some recent changes regarding this, but not every lender is aware of them)

Closing Periods: Different

For VA loans, you need 21 days to close them because appraisal turn times are slower, and it’s generally just a more cumbersome process. For FHA, we can close the loans in about 14 days.  (Note these are amazing turn times, most lenders need 30 days or more)

Rates: Similar

Both types of loans have lower rates than your typical conventional loans. Lower rates are a major advantage for both.

Mortgage Insurance: Different

VA has no mortgage insurance, which is one of the reasons this type of financing is such a great opportunity for veterans. The FHA, on the other hand, has a mortgage insurance of 0.85 percent for most loans, with less than 5 percent down.

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Up-Front Fees: Similar

The VA has a “funding fee” of 2.15 percent with 0 percent down that decreases with larger down payments. The FHA has an “up-front mortgage insurance premium” of 1.75 percent.

Down Payment: Different

The VA loan allows for 100 percent financing (0 percent down), whereas the FHA requires a minimum of 3.5 percent down.

(Final note:  most condo complexes are not FHA approved as they have not gone through the approval process which has to be updated periodically, I have not found that issue for the most part with VA because usually the complexes get VA approved at the time of building and it stays with the property)

Interest rates remain a gift

Recently, we’ve talked a lot about the rising interest rates. Everyone seems to be in panic mode over it, and my friend Jay Vorhees of JVM Lending is here to explain – in a historical context – why the reaction is overblown. He says the only people who should really be worried are businesses and companies that focus only on refinancing.

We’ve already touched on why higher interest rates are good, but an interest rate under 6 percent is amazing when put in a historical context, and should be treated as such. Here is a graph from Freddie Mac that shows an in-depth breakdown of interest rates over the past 30 years, but we’ve also shared JVM’s table on interest rates:

DATE                                      RATE                      COST
 
March of 2017                    4.2%                     0.5 Points

April of 2014                      4.34%                   0.6 Points

2008 (entire year)           6.03%                   0.6 Points

2000                                      8.05%                   1.0 Point

1995                                      7.93%                   1.8 Points

1990                                     10.13%                  2.1 Points

1985                                     12.43%                  2.5 Points

This shows that not only are rates much lower than they have been at the highest points of the market, but that loans are also much lower than usual – yes, I know our prices are higher than most of the country, but higher interest rates, always hurt you in the pocket book more than higher prices.  Anytime you can lock in a rate below 6 percent, you are doing quite well. So maybe now is the time to get into the market!